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Gloucestershire Business News

Region's business activity flickers down, says major bank

Albeit very small, there has been a fresh decline in Gloucestershire's business output.

The finding from the NatWest bank comes amid a further decrease in new orders, though staffing levels remain broadly stable, according to the bank's latest South West analysis.

At an rating of 49.8 in November, the headline finding in the bank's South West PMI Business Activity Index - a seasonally adjusted measurement of month-on-month changes in the combined output of the region's manufacturing and service sectors - fell from 50.1 in October.

Dipping below the "no-change 50.0 mark" signalled a fractional reduction in business activity, the bank's analysts stated.

Paul Edwards, chair of the NatWest South West Regional Board, said: "After broadly stabilising in October, the latest PMI data indicated that business activity across the South West slipped back into contraction territory during November."

Albeit only fractional, he said the fall contrasted with a slight increase in output at the national level, with companies in the region often blaming the subdued performance on weak customer demand.

He added: "Furthermore, lingering economic uncertainty and high inflation has led clients to become more reluctant to commit to sales and new projects, with total new orders falling for the sixth month in a row. As a result, companies in the South West continued to deplete their backlogs of work, which fell at a solid and accelerated pace. With demand waning and signs of excess capacity, there could be further cuts to output in the months ahead unless we see inflows of new business revive."

Private sector companies in our region recorded a decline in overall new work for the sixth successive month in November. Despite quickening from October, the bank said that the rate of reduction was "modest and weaker than seen on average over this period".

The report added: "Subdued client confidence and hesitancy to commit to new orders was cited as having dampened sales in the latest survey period. Measured across the UK as a whole, new business fell at a marginal rate that was the softest in four months."

Optimism was still to be found though: "Businesses operating in the South West remained upbeat that output levels would rise over the next year in November."

Companies that projected higher business activity often linked this to hopes of stronger client demand, new product releases, new investments and greater market share. However, concerns remain over the current subdued economic climate.

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