Great news: UK GDP is up.

The ONS stats don't lie. Monthly real gross domestic product was estimated to have grown by 0.2% in January 2024, following a fall of 0.1% in December 2023.

That statistical change of direction signals we might bodyswerve anything more than a wander into "technical recession" – but small businesses are begging to differ.

With a laser eye not just on how SMEs can weather conditions as we head deeper into 2024, but also on the prospects for startups and new business, Tina McKenzie, the Federation of Small Businesses policy chair, has sounded a strong warning that we might not want to begin celebrating any time soon, warning: "It's too early to celebrate with any great level of vigour, as small firms are certainly finding the going tough at the moment."

Ms McKenzie added: "An increase in GDP is an encouraging start to the year, and one small firms will be relieved to see, as it raises hopes that we may be pulling out of the shallow recession declared following low levels of negative growth through the second half of 2023."

She also acknowledged that the recent budget contained some help for small firms, notably the raising of the VAT threshold from £85,000 to £90,000 and the cut to National Insurance contributions.

But she said small firms had also hoped for more help with day-to-day costs.

She said: "This isn't just about existing businesses starting to turn to growth in 2024; this is about creating the conditions for people to set up in business for the very first time, the next generation of start-ups who will make up the ground we lost during the Covid years when the UK small business population contracted by 500,000, losing one in 10 of them.

"Our Small Business Index research has found particular cause for concern among hospitality and retail firms, which are trailing far behind the overall average in terms of confidence levels. Indeed, one in eight firms in the hospitality sector expect to close entirely in the next 12 months, nearly four times the rate for all businesses, which should be a huge wake-up call to the Government about the dangers facing many thousands of small businesses.

"Small businesses contribute an enormous amount to the economy, and a sustainable recovery will be built on their success and growth. Today's news must be built on, if it is not to turn into another false dawn for small firms."

Punchline-Gloucester.com says: "The FSB's sounding of caution amid positive GDP news is understandable. Every day in Gloucestershire we see how small to medium businesses must keep their moving at speed just to stand still. It's tough out there right now. Our economic engine won't increase its performance without all the crucial little cogs – so let's not forget them."