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Gloucestershire Business News

Unemployment falls but recruitment gap worries business leaders

The official jobless total may be the lowest for more than 40 years but businesses have little to celebrate.

For while it may be good news that the unemployment figure at 1.36 million has fallen to a level not seen since 1975, business leaders are facing a recruitment crisis.

This is being made worse by Brexit uncertainty and a fall in workers from other EU countries.

Commenting on the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics, Ian Mean, director of Gloucestershire Chamber, Business West, said: "Government will no doubt highlight the fact that unemployment is at its lowest level since the 1970s, but we must remember that this figure is slightly misleading, given that it is a reflection of the claimant count, rather the total number of the UK adult population who find themselves out of work.

"A much better indicator of the health of the UK labour market is the employment rate and this has remained static. The wage growth that we saw in the last set of ONS figures similarly refuses to budge.

"Perhaps the most worrying statistic for businesses is an increase in unfilled job vacancies spurred by falling immigration from the EU. 2.28 million EU nationals were working in the UK between April and June 2018.

"This is 86,000 less than the same period in 2017; making it the largest annual fall since records began in 1997. What this exposes is a national education and training system that is struggling to cope with the demands British of businesses in terms of skills and this a worrying sign with Brexit looming.

"One positive we can take from the latest set of ONS results is the unemployment rate amongst 16-24 year olds, which was at its since records began. While this can of course be caveated due to the fact that the unemployment rate only reflects those claiming benefits; the fact that the number of young people not in employment, education or training overall is low and getting lower is news to celebrate."

Matthew Percival, CBI head of employment, said: "Continuing job creation shows that flexibility in the labour market is a key strength of the UK economy. However, these figures show that the size of the UK workforce is shrinking at the same time as vacancies for skills and labour grow.

"Shortages are already hampering firms' ability to compete and create jobs, so it's vital that the UK pursues an open and controlled post-Brexit immigration policy.

"The Government needs to guarantee that EU workers can continue to work even in a 'no deal' scenario. And putting migration and mobility on the table when negotiating a new relationship with the EU will help secure the best deal for the UK while ensuring companies can access the people and skills they need to succeed."

Tara Sinclair, economist and senior fellow at global job site, Indeed, said: "On the surface this is positive news: more jobs are being created, employment is up and unemployment is down but it bears repeating that the labour market is close to bursting.

"Employers will now be considering their next move following the sustained drop in EU nationals working in the UK over the last three quarters. The supply of workers - the fuel that powers the labour market - is becoming more scarce, which means hiring is likely to become even more difficult moving forward.

"With employment up and unemployment down, it may appear that all is rosy, but the prolonged wage squeeze, low productivity growth and continued Brexit uncertainty would suggest that the recent growth in the jobs market cannot be sustained much longer."

In Gloucestershire the latest figures, which now incorporate universal credit claimants, are show Stroud to have 785 people registered as claiming the benefit, the Cotswolds 510, the Forest of Dean 870, Gloucester 1,610, Cheltenham 1,075 and Tewkesbury 625.

Mike Nichols, a manager at Jobcentre Plus in Gloucestershire, said: "We have heard a lot about concerns regarding the labour market nationally, but here in Gloucestershire we are seeing quite a lot of different roles come up.

"We have also had quite a lot of businesses approach is to work with us directly on finding staff. We have been able to help set up interviews and arrange for rooms, etc."

In recent times apprentices had also become increasingly important in the jobs market with many choosing that route to work over a university degree.

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