Having spent more time reviewing and reflecting on the announcements made yesterday, Nick Haines of Hazlewoods questions whether the receipts predicted will actually come to fruition.

The biggest revenue raiser was the increase in employers' National Insurance, predicted to raise £20 billion per annum. What is not clear is whether the tax relief that employers will receive has been reflected in that number. For companies, relief will be claimed at up to 25%, whilst for partnerships or sole traders, income tax relief of up to 47% (including National Insurance), will be achieved. Taking an estimate of 35% tax relief, gives a net receipt to the Exchequer of £13 billion.

The changes to non-domiciled individuals are predicted to achieve a maximum of £5.8 billion in 2027/28, but if those wealthiest individuals decide to emigrate, which has been widely mooted since the abolition was first announced by the former Conservative Government, the ability to raise that level of revenue is questionable. Furthermore, if they do leave, not only do they not pay the increase, but they do not pay the tax they're currently liable for, which could result in a net negative impact on Treasury receipts.

The Capital Gains Tax changes are expected to bring in up to £2.5 billion per year, but the increase may well influence behaviour to leave the UK for five years and avoid the regime altogether. How much damage could that to do to the predicted receipts?

The changes to Inheritance Tax business and agricultural reliefs are only expected to generate £500 million per year, but if the asset is given away more than seven years before death, then no tax is due. Removing the relief will surely encourage business owners to plan more effectively, resulting in less monies for the Exchequer.

Finally, if you look at the net result of the tax and spend policies, they run at a net outlay of between £35 billion and £40 billion per year. Whilst the borrowing required is justified under the new investment rule, the debt still has to be financed. Ten year bond rates have jumped from 4.2% at the end of the Chancellor's speech to 4.48% just 24 hours later, so the cost of borrowing will just add to the cost of the proposals. Whilst the investment rule allows for the value of the investment asset to be recognised as a positive, that doesn't generate the cash required, unless there are plans to sell off the assets at some point in the future.

So, on reflection, there are more questions than answers, concerns over the numbers and the cost of borrowing. In Nick's view, despite the fact the Chancellor said there is no quick fix, this government has about 18 months to show an improvement to taxpayers' lives, otherwise it is unlikely to be forgotten when we next go to the polls.

For specialist tax advice from Hazlewoods, email nick.haines@hazlewoods.co.uk  or call 01242 680000.

Did yesterday's Autumn Budget Statement put a spring in the step of Gloucestershire business or leave it nursing a Halloween headache?

As the dust settles on a tumultuous day, the broader implications of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' package of measures are now being weighed up by key stakeholders in the county's economic wellbeing. After we were warned how "difficult decisions" would be announced, did the first Labour budget in 15 years offer, as promised, to "fix the foundations" or leave businesses in Gloucestershire feeling shellshocked?

Because firms of every size make up the engine that drives our economy to improve everyone's lives, our key focus surrounds the specifics of support for small business and the high street, the revision to the business rates system for retail, hospitality and leisure (RHL), commitment to helping pubs and breweries, corporation and inheritance tax and, last but not least, employer's NI contributions.

To grasp these thorny issues, we've been talking to people here and nationally. But ultimately, there has only really been one question: is yesterday going to make tomorrow easier?

Starting on the high street and looking at retail and hospitality, Tony Davey, Stroud Mayor and chair of Stroud and District Chamber of Trade and Commerce said: "Any criticisms from yesterday must bear the caveat that we are in a mess, but we didn't get to be in that mess in the last 100 days.

"We all know it's going to be difficult, but good grief, we just had a bit of a slap."

Hospitality pays some of the lowest wages because it is already saddled with the worst overheads, he said, and its predicament today "just got a whole lot worse".

Mr Davey said: "Significant changes will affect hospitality and retail. On the positive side we have been calling for business rate reform for a long time and we now at least have a date of 2026-2027 for that to come, although in the meantime we have business rates relief being dropped from 75% to just 40%. 

"That's going to be a significant hit. I appreciate the Chancellor suggesting this is covered through profits, but we are still in a cost of living crisis, with profits perhaps not as abundant in smaller businesses as they are in larger ones."

He added he would remind Ms Reeves of data from the British Retail Consortium which warns that retail accounts for 5% of the economy but pays 7.4% of all business taxes - and 20% of all business rates.

He added: "That's why we desperately need rates reform because at the moment it favours Temu and Amazon over businesses who serve their communities."

As mentors and facilitators for business in the county and across the South West, Business West had no delusions that hard decisions were incoming, but its critique landed at Punchline with the heading "Where's the South West?".

Phil Smith, Managing Director, Business West said: "We recognise that the Government faces a tight fiscal position. However, we are really concerned that raising the tax burden on the business community could hinder the Government's much sought after growth and undermine investment decisions.

"Through our quarterly economic survey, businesses have told us that rising taxes are an increasing worry. Employer NIC increases will leave companies with less money to invest in their staff and business's success."

Business West welcomed measures for small businesses such as changes to the employment allowances, and business rate relief for our region's retail, hospitality, and leisure sectors, but questioned wether the fine margins these industries operate on were factored in. Employment costs form a large share of their cost base, Mr Smith warned, and these employers will be "disproportionately impacted" by the NIC hike.

He added: "Our region has a strong economy that plays a key role in the UK's overall economic success. We welcome the Government's commitment to 'invest, invest, invest' in our country through the Government's seven key pillars of economic growth, particularly commitment to supporting our region's vital industries, such as aerospace, advanced manufacturing, creative industries, and clean energy."

But he warned: "However, we regret that the South West seems to have been missed out from the Autumn Statement plans. Hence now, more than ever, it will be important for our devolved local and regional leaders to make the case for the government and private sector to invest in our region and its economic growth."

For Moreton Cullimore, the boss of the Whitminster-headquartered Cullimore Group, managing partner of Cullimore Farming and the chair of UK trade body the Road Haulage Association, the government has set new parameters which signal both opportunities and setbacks.

Mr Cullimore said: "While a freeze in fuel duty is welcome for any transport company, that small bit of good news was overshadowed by increase in HGV VED rates."

The government will raise HGV levies in step with RPI from next April, which the RHA quickly stated will pile further cost pressures on vehicle operators at a time when the industry is facing a range of other rising costs.

He added: "Furthermore the increase in Employers National Insurance will make it more expensive to employ people, possibly restricting business growth and a strong possibility in prices rising which will mean with swift consequence possible effect on inflation once again.

"Possible changes in business rates also squeezes this low margin industry and the backbone of the economy even further, in a year when more haulage business have had to close their doors and cease trading then ever before."

On the farming side of Mr Cullimore's busy desk, steps taken - or not taken - yesterday were more shocking: "Yet again, agriculture in the UK is hit the hardest and it shows that our country's decision makers fail to even try to understand the farming industry that feeds the nation. Agriculture has struggled now for years leading to less then 50% of our nation's food produced here, purely because of economics."

Over-reliance on importing leaves the UK hugely susceptible to overseas market prices, he said, and vulnerable to supply headaches: "When will any government learn that we can and should produce more food sustainably in this country if the farmer is given half the chance?"

Mr Cullimore added that changes to agricultural property relief (for which the first stage of 100% relief will stop at £1m frm April 1 2025 and be rated at 50% thereafter) will affect around 70,000 farms. The measure will damaging the nation's vital family businesses, he said, further destabilise food security and could jeopardise production of bio fuels.

Speaking for Gloucestershire's huge charity sector, specialist care charity the National Star at Ullenwood, near Cheltenham, has meanwhile highlighted how the rise in employer's NIC – combined with the increase in National Living Wage – could nudge some to the brink.

With a payroll or 1,260, Lynette Barrett, National Star CEO, told Punchline that with the majority of young adults with complex needs being funded by education, health and/or social care, such work is dependent on local authorities which fund care places.

Mrs Barrett welcomed yesterday's "significant investment in health services", but added: "Those authorities are already struggling financially and are unable to keep up with the cost-of-living increases in social care."

Unlike a private company that will have profit margins, charities run on a break-even budget, she said, operating on incredibly tight margins: "A 6.7% increase in the National Living Wage plus the increase in employer National Insurance contributions and lowered threshold will have a huge impact, even more so if those costs cannot be passed on to the local authorities which fund the places."

Her solution? "What the Government needs to do is provide additional social care funding that can be passed on to local authorities so that they can, in turn, support voluntary social care providers with this increased cost.

"As a charity we welcome an increase of pay for those who are lowest paid and do life-changing work every day," says Mrs Barrett. "However, these increases without mention of how local authorities are covering this cost in the fees they pay to providers is alarming."

Furthermore, early calculations indicate it will cost the charity close to £1m to cover the minimum wage increase and extra employer NI contribution.

"It could be more as the level of NI will increase for those on higher salaries," Mrs Barrett added. "It will have huge implications."

The Government will not, she said, be able to solve the NHS crisis without incorporating the social care crisis into its plans for reform: "The lack of mention of social care was stark."

And while the increase of £1 billion for special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) was welcome, she warned it was not enough to tackle the crisis.

"That additional funding does not address the deficit of more than £4bn that has built up in local authorities. Add to that the fact that we will now have to charge local authorities VAT as we are classed as a private school even though we are a charity that is publicly funded to provide specialist education and care."

No sector know more about the importance of a good night's sleep than hospitality, so how did UKHospitality find yesterday?

Calculating an increased annual tax bill of £3 billion in 2025, the sector's voice said Ms Reeves' statement was the 'latest blow' for businesses - although the Chancellor had listened to its call for a lower level of business rates for hospitality from 2026/7.

Kate Nicholls, CEO of UKHospitality, said: "This Budget is the latest blow for hospitality businesses. Rising taxes, increasing costs and fragile consumer confidence risk bringing growth to a grinding halt."

In the short-term, a "tsunami" of employment costs coming in April would ultimately do more to hamper growth than incentivise it, she said, citing increases to employer NICs and wages as key blocks to investment.

She said: "Avoiding the business rates cliff-edge next April was critical and it was important that some relief has been extended. However, the reduced level of 40% is another cost that businesses have to deal with. For those small- and medium-sized operators, their rates bills will still go up in April.

"All of this means that 2025 will be painful for hospitality, with an increased annual tax bill of £3 billion for the sector."

Despite this though, there were reasons for longer-term positivity: the permanently lower level of business rates for the sector, as urged by UKHospitality, levelled the playing field and recognised the importance of the high street for both the economy and communities.

She added: "We need to see the detail and the Government must work with the sector in the design and delivery of this significant change to get it right."

Echoing this view, Lindsey Holland, who sits on Cheltenham's Chamber of Commerce and owns and runs Cleeve Hill Hotel, said the sector was mentally exhausted in the aftermath of the Pandemic.

She told Punchline: "Hospitality had to find its voice very quickly during Covid. We needed to share our fight for survival and educate guests that their actions could have positive impacts on who survived and who didn't, especially in the independent scene. After yesterday, it looks like we're about to have to do the same again.

"For four years, we've been trying to absorb excessive costs without alienating customers. There was hope: interest rates changed, utilities reduced and a new government [arrived]. Then Sir Keir felt the need to prewarn about a severe budget on the horizon - and overnight spending reduced," she said.

"With the budget delivered, we now know how much worse the struggle will be. Yes, there are 'relief' policies, but in the main the increase in NI for employers and a lower threshold on NI will reduce the already minimal profit being made."

She added this warning: "Without profit, we can't invest or grow our businesses. Personally I own a historic building that isn't aware it can't age until I make profit again. We want to thrive and excel but for now it looks like we'll carry on running to stand still and hope we don't go under before the public gain confidence and start spending again."

Among all employers in Gloucestershire, the key focus from yesterday is likely to be the impact on its monthly wage bill from next April: according to the British Retail Consortium, retailers alone will have to find an extra £2.3bn on NI contributions, £367m to meet the elevated minimum wage and £140m on business rates.

Helen Dickinson, the chief executive of the BRC, said: "Retail employs three million people and 2.7 million more across supply chains, driving investment in jobs, communities and, ultimately, economic growth, right across the country. For a low margin industry, today's Budget will hit hard, with the odds now stacked firmly against growth and investment in the short term. These new costs also risk increasing the prices customers pay at the till."

If you've made it this far though today's sobering news, you may well be contemplating a consolatory lunchtime drink. But according to the mixed messages perceived from the budget by Cotswold brewer and venue host Greg Pilley, who runs Stroud Brewery, the budget might lead to your beer tasting a little flat.

Mr Pilley said: "With the government needing to raise revenue, the budget could have been worse and, whilst some elements were welcome and heading in the right direction, it didn't go far enough on what it did introduce."

Overall, Ms Reeves left pubs in a slightly worse situation than before, he said. Echoing the fears of UKHospitality, he did, however, acknowledge the duty reduction on beer as a (small) step in the right direction.

He added: "Stroud Brewery and the pub trade have been calling for a significant reduction on the duty of draught beer so the cost of drinking out becomes similar to buying beer in supermarkets and drinking at home. However, the duty reduction of 1.7% will only take a penny off the price of a pint, not giving any incentive to drink in pubs.

"We believe every community should have their own local. Pubs can be the heart of a community and bring people together, especially when so many places don't have a corner shop or post office any more."

The budget's bottom line, however, did not ensure landlords will sleep any more easily.