FINAL COUNT: The winners and losers

They had 26 seats and effectively enjoyed control for 20 years, but with the counting now all done, the Conservatives at Shire Hall are decimated, their representation down to just six divisions. What went wrong?

The numbers don't lie: Reform UK has eaten into the traditional right's support, cutting through to the electorate on immigration, the cost of living, energy policy and national sovereignty and its populist message has resonated with traditional Tory voters but also those who lent their vote to Sir Keir Starmer, whose office will note that its representation has crumbled to just one councillor.

The final numbers for Shire Hall are: 

Lib Dems, 27

Reform UK 11

Green Party 9

Conservatives 6

Labour 1

Independent 1

In a verdict given to Sky News, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said: "The message to Kemi Badenoch is, frankly, the Conservative party is finished today, it's gone, it's dying in the shires, it has no future, it stands for nothing, it serves no purpose."

Within the business community, which some may mistakenly perceive as a mere corner of Gloucestershire life, it is also clear that worry, dissatisfaction and plain fear over wage increases, National Insurance hikes and new employment rights have combined to be an excellent reason to reject the current government. Sure, this is a local election, but it's the only one in town.

Amid this, the Green Party emerges as a clear winner, growing its Shire Hall contingent to nine, and thereby more than doubling their previous numbers. We now therefore expect the Lib Dems and Greens to strike a collaborative deal which will comfortably see the two parties over the line for a ruling administration. 

Is the old two-party system of government over? With Reform gaining 425 seats nationally so far, while the Tories lose 322 and Labour 125, the obituaries are already being signed off. Nothing in Gloucestershire is suggesting that verdict is fundamentally wrong.

Here in Gloucestershire, as we predicted, the Liberal Democrats were the big winners, not least due to their coups in previous Tory strongholds from Highnam and Winchcombe to Woodmancote and Tetbury. Though their final count fell just short of one councillor to take overall control. Having won in Gloucester, the Forest of Dean and Tewkesbury, Reform's haul of seats means it is now the official opposition.

In a statement to welcome her party's victory, Lisa Spivey, the council's Lib Dem leader, said: "We are delighted that voters in Gloucestershire have recognised hard working local Liberal Democrats councillors and rewarded us with our best ever results.

"Our message of change has clearly resonated and we are looking forward to delivering for residents."

Meanwhile Conservative group leader Stephen Davies, re-elected in the Hardwicke and Severn seat, voiced his disappointment "to see the loss of so many hard working Conservative Councillors" and added that the council would be "an interesting place with some very inexperienced councillors who will now have to make some tough decisions."

A statement from Reform UK said: "In Gloucestershire, just like around the country, we're seeing the disintegration of the two-party system.

"The public have sent a clear message that they are fed up with years of betrayal and mismanagement from Labour and the Conservatives."

Lib Dems HOLD Innsworth

In a sideshow to yesterday's main event, Tewkesbury Borough Council also held a by-election for a seat representing Innsworth. The results, as below, show it was a Lib Dem hold, with Rojina Rai winning with a devilish 666 votes – enough to beat the only other significant vote which was for... Reform candidate Graham Bocking.

FRIDAY 3PM UPDATE - THE PICTURE SO FAR

The emerging picture is looking like a Labour rout with the party of government seeing its share depressed yet further than the modest representation it had before May 1. As things are, there is just ONE Labour councillors readying to take a seat at Shire Hall for the coming administration, marking a voting trend that will send shivers down the spines of even the most seasoned left-wing MPs.

FRIDAY 1.30PM UPDATE: Lib Dems almost Petrie-fied in early result

Hesters Way and Springbank has been held onto by the Liberal Democrats in the first result issued in Gloucestershire County Council's elections today – but the results are stark illustration of a surge for Reform UK who are tipped to be in the wings for several successes as the day rolls on.

Cllr Suzanne Williams was elected with 997 votes, with Reform's candidate Iain Petrie polling 746 in second position. His tally dwarfed Labour's poll of just 84 votes while the Conservatives' final count was 307. The Green Party took fourth spot on 227.

Other early results now in suggest, despite the above result, that the Lib Dems are doing well, though their gain rate is matched by Reform UK who as yet now have three seats on the council – all taken from the Conservatives, who now inevitably stand to lose the measure of control they had.

The overall turnout, GCC says, was 36.7%.

Watch this space for further updates!

Abbey – Conservative HOLD

All Saints and Oakley – Lib Dem HOLD

Barnwood and Hucclecote – Lib Dem HOLD

Barton and Tredworth – Conservative HOLD

Battledown and Charlton Kings – Lib Dem GAIN from Conservative

Benhall and Up Hatherley – Lib Dem HOLD

Charlton Park and College – Lib Dem HOLD

Coney Hill and Matson – Independent HOLD

Grange and Kingsway – Reform UK GAIN from Conservative

Hempsted and Westgate – Lib Dem GAIN from Conservative

Kingsholm and Wotton – Lib Dem HOLD

Leckhampton and Warden Hill – Lib Dem GAIN from Conservative

Longlevens – Lib Dem GAIN from Conservative

Prestbury and Swindon Village – Green Party WIN

Quedgeley - Reform UK GAIN  from Conservative

St Mark's and St Peter's - Lib Dem HOLD

Tuffley and Moreland - Reform UK GAIN from Conservative

As the count gets under way to see which party/parties have a hand on the tiller at Shire Hall, Punchline-Gloucester.com will bring you updates on this page for the final results. 

If you are reading this in our free lunchtime news bulletin – what's that, you haven't subscribed? – we may know more on the way the authority is heading, but no clear confirmation is expected before 4pm.

Can the Conservatives maintain their minority administration? For those of a more Faragist disposition, the weekend weather may appear sunnier so far than for those remaining Labour and Conservative voters, while onlookers from the Lib Dems and Green Party may, perhaps, exploit some mathematical advantage.

Full results will not be known until after 4pm, but it seems likely we will will see big changes. If – as these moments inevitably are – this election is about tapping into resentment over Sir Keir Starmer's first year of power, or agnosticism for Kemi Badenoch's troubled leadership of the Tories, the county election, rightly or wrongly, serves as a lightning rod for public sentiment.

That political reality has to be deeply frustrating for candidates in our county's poll who want the debate to be predicated upon the grown-up, important local issues that matter to us specifically, right here, but such is politics: the right to vote is enshrined for adults; the right to use it as an adult? Maybe less so.

So the backdrop for Shire Hall's elections, as we know it so far, is that the results look likely to see a celebratory Friday for Reform UK, crowned by the addition of a sixth MP to Westminster after Sarah Pochin romped home with a majority of, er, six votes to take the constituency of Runcorn and Helsby.

Mayoral elections are also being held in places across the country, and with a 10% swing from the Conservatives to Reform UK being hailed by pundits, the prospects for a Conservative consolidation, or improved power share, in Gloucester appear as likely as the A417 missing link being finished by Monday.

Perhaps the Lib Dems will emerge unscathed from the crossfire, take more than their previous seat count and be the dark horse(s) here? Until this vote, the Tories had 26 councillors, the Liberal Democrats had 16 and Labour and the Greens four apiece, while two former Tories had become Independents. Punchline has also been aware of an increasing level of momentum for the Green party in parts of the county, but beyond early-morning speculation, a failure of Reform UK to upset the final numbers seems incredibly unlikely.

As a flavour of what may come, Northumberland County Council saw Reform gain 23 seats overnight, leaving the authority's direction with no overall control, while Reform took the mayoral crown in Greater Lincolnshire and the party's veteran Arron Banks came close to toppling the leadership of the West of England Combined Authority, Labour's Helen Godwin holding on by just a lead of two per cent.

Hold on to your sun hats... it's going to be a long day.

● An election for Innsworth Ward, Tewkesbury Borough Council, has also been held and Punchline will report on this result as soon as it is known.