Retailers across Gloucestershire and the Cotswolds should have more reason to be cheerful by the time they pull down the shutters on Christmas Eve.

With just 10 shopping days remaining, AI-enabled market intelligence giant NielsenIQ (NIQ) has forecast that our grocery spend will hit £10bn – and identified many positive indicators for optimism.

Mike Watkins, NIQ's UK Head of Retailer and Business Insight, said: "Sales are going to accelerate in the two weeks up to December 21. The biggest single week will be week ending December 21, with £6bn being spent at the grocery multiples, which is a third of the four-weekly spend in one week."

Food retailers were advised to prepare for this late rush from the start of next week, he added, as shoppers will be looking for fresh food and centre pieces for the dinner table and last-minute gifts. They will also be seeking to trade up to premium items.

He added: "Last year with food inflation at 7% (BRC NIQ SPI), volumes fell in December 2023 however, this year NIQ expects volume growth of around +1%. Even with 50% of households saying it is important for them to make savings on their Christmas groceries this year, 66% still expect they will spend the same or more than last year (NIQ Homescan Survey) and 38% intend to use points or vouchers saved up. So there are reasons to be cheerful".

On the back of forensic analysis of consumer behaviour in the four weeks to the end of November, NIQ says that it's confident sales will accelerate to their peak on December 21 (a week tomorrow) after its monitoring of in-store FMCG sales grew by 5.7%, overtaking online trade, which rose by 0.6%. Shoppers were actively looking for discounts on the shop floor, its latest report said.

Of all the big categories, health and beauty products saw the second strongest growth after grocery (up 6.9%) though as a possible indicator of social change, sales fell 3.8% for beer, wine and spirits.

With a 16.2% uptick, NIQ says that Ocado still leads the pack in retailer growth over the last 12 weeks while Marks & Spencer (up 10.6%) and Tesco (5.1%) maintain momentum.

Total till sales growth throughout UK supermarkets in the last four weeks ending November 30 was 3.7%, a final figure that was down from 4.0% in the previous month and that slowdown in growth was seen to be likely due to milder weather, Black Friday distraction and, NIQ said, "shoppers holding out until early December for their big Christmas shop".

With shoppers actively looking for discounts, the November data also witnessed a boost to visits to stores (up by 5.7%) ahead of online shopping, which registered a modest rise of 0.6%.

As a result, NIQ said that the online share of FMCG was 13.1%, compared to last year's comparitor of 13.4%.

The percentage of sales purchased on promotion increased to 25% from 24% in October.

The NIQ report stated: "Shoppers are seeking out savvy ways to save money and retailers and brands are hoping to drive incremental sales and basket spend through both more in-store promotional activity and increased loyalty app discounts. 'Personalised Savings' is thought to have unlocked this discretionary spend with 38% of households set to use vouchers and points saved up for their Christmas groceries this year."

Black Friday also coincided with payday at the end of the month, seeing value growth sustained at the Grocery Multiples in the last week of November. Shoppers cashed in on higher ticket priced items while on promotion, such as 25% off six bottles of wine and beauty and gifting offers.

However, this likely resulted in holding back spend on other items such as storage cupboard food, frozen and household basics, where growth was flat.

In terms of category growth, NIQ data shows that the health and beauty category experienced an uplift in sales by 6.9%, likely helped by Black Friday discounts. However, beer, wines and spirits continue to struggle as value sales fell 3.8% and there was no corresponding increase in unit sales, which were down 2.5% compared to a year ago.