After an optimistic 2.9% uptick in May, new data from the Office for National Statistics today on UK sales activity will make disappointing reading for retailers across Gloucestershire, with a 1.2% drop in volume of sales for June.

News network Reuters reported that the drop trippled the anticipated fall it had calculated on the basis of a poll of economists.

With department stores and clothing retailers broadly returning to their Q1 2024 levels of activity, retail sales are estimated, the ONS says, to have fallen by 0.1% in Q2 when compared with Q1 – and to have tumbled by 0.2% when compared to this quarter a year ago.

In all, and despite having noted a 1% increase to retail footfall in the past week, sales volumes for June were 1.3% below their pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

Among the winners and losers, non-food stores (department, clothing, household, and other non-food stores) took a 2.1% hit in June - a directional change made tougher by the experience of 3.3% rise in May 2024.

An ONS spokeperson said: "All sub-sectors fell over the month, with strong downward contributions from department stores, clothing and footwear retailers, and furniture stores. Retailers suggested election uncertainty, poor weather, and low footfall affected sales.

In food stores, lower activity translated into a 1.1% dip in June 2024, and by 1.3% in Q2 2024 when compared with Q1.

The ONS added: "This was mainly due to supermarkets. Retailer commentary suggested that both poor weather and economic conditions had an effect, as consumers showed caution with their spending."

And though we may simply be staying at home to save money, we are not buying so much online: ONS focus on online spending values showed a fall by 2.7% during June 2024, albeit that translated into a rise 2.3% against the same month a year ago.

The report concluded: "As total spend, the sum of in-store and online sales fell by 1.3% over the month, with the proportion of sales being made online decreased from 27.5% in May 2024 to 27.1% in June 2024."

Reflecting on the new data, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) said it marked a gloomy start to summer activity.

Kris Hamer, BRC Director of Insight, said: "Sales volumes declined in June, falling for the fourth time in six months due to the colder than usual June and high costs for households. Categories sensitive to weather, such as clothing performed particularly poorly. Some electronic categories had a better month due to consumers replacing their pandemic purchases, and sports aficionados upgraded their home entertainment systems to better experience the excitement of the Euros, Wimbledon, and upcoming Olympics."

Books were also seen to sell well as consumers readied their summer reads, he said.

"With the summer social season nearly in full swing, and a new Government offering a fresh approach to the economy, retailers are hopeful that consumer confidence will improve, and spending will pick back up.

"The King's speech laid the foundations for a more modern and dynamic British economy, and retailers look forward to working closely with Government to maximise the industry's contribution. This includes greater investment in skills and training, and using reforms to planning laws to create thriving town and city centres."

● With the Bank of England due to hold its next meeting on August 1, analysts are now predicting that interest rates will be kept on hold.