FRIDAY READ: Handbrake sticks on car and van output
By Simon Hacker | 27th September 2024
UK car production stuttered to a drop of 8.4% in August, according to new figures published today by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
And parking the sombre news next to this, commercial vehicle (CV) manufacturing took a 10% dent for the same month.

So at a time when a new government has the power to activate its 'Driving a Growing Economy' plan which it unveiled last year – as in the one where it extolled the £16bn economic value of this sector, not to mention the 800,000 jobs that come with it – what's been yanking the handbrake on the UK's auto sector?

For both commercial and car output, the precise timing of this data drop is key: we're looking at August, and with school out for summer, along with most workforces choosing the period to take a seasonal break, August is traditionally a low output period for automakers.
In fact, for cars, the SMMT points out that that 8.4% decline was equivalent to just 3,781 fewer units. In all, 41,271 new cars rolled off production lines.
Further factors were at play in car creation, it added: "The decline also continues a trend seen across the year, as factories wind down production of key models and retool for new - primarily electric - model production, following the £24bn of UK automotive manufacturing investment announced last year."

In the details of this side of the sector, the production of electrified (battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hybrid) cars for the month fell by 25.9%, leading to a fall in share of output to 29.6%. But the SMMT has voiced confidence that this decline will be reversed in the longer-term as new models come onstream.
Production for cars that see UK customers, however, took a sizeable hit, by almost 20% (19.8% if you sell new cars in Gloucestershire and that hurts less to read.
Addressing this potentially alarming number, the trade body said this impact was "amplified by the small overall output volume for the month and the fact that the vast majority of UK production is for export." By comparison, exports fell by a modest 5.9%, largely due to changeovers of models built for EU markets.
Speaking of Europe, the EU's 27 member states remain by far the biggest export destination, comprising 49.8% of total business, while the US takes a 17.0% slice (think Jaguar Land Rover) and China 6.5%. Japan meanwhile buys 5.1% of the cars we make, while our friends down under take in a not-to-be-sniffed-at 4.4%. Among these, growth was recorded in both the American and Japanese markets.

Looking at where we are on year to date production, UK car production is down 8.5% at 522,823 units in total, though output for the UK market is up 12.3% - and that is despite August's domestic decline.
Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said that despite the holiday factor and makers hitting the off switch to prep new models, optimism was not endangered: "August was always going to be a quieter month for output. The sector remains optimistic about a return to growth, however, with record levels of investment announced last year.
"Realising those investments and securing more depends on the UK industry maintaining its competitiveness so we look forward both to the Chancellor's Autumn budget and the government's proposed Industrial Strategy as critical opportunities to demonstrate that it backs auto."
The SMMT believes that Labour's Automotive Sector Plan, launched at its party conference a year ago, should be the blueprint with its proposals for cheaper, green energy, skills investment and the cultivation of healthy markets here and abroad.
Mr Hawes added: "These are the measures that would enable the industry to drive economic growth in every part of the country."
August's CV sales bore a tougher stat than we see in the car side of the industry. With 6,044 units leaving the production lines in August, that spelt a 10% drop in year-on-year production. Mitigating the headline, the SMMT said seasonal factors, as above, came into play and rightfully emphasised how we are nevertheless 8.8% up on 2019, before the C bomb dropped.
Against the backdrop of the CV figures, the SMMT found reason to praise the new government's initial moves.
Mr Hawes said: "With vehicle production so important to the UK economy, it's no surprise that the new government is committing to boosting the jewel in the crown of UK manufacturing base, the automotive industry - as outlined in Labour's plan for the Automotive Sector, with key aspects like building an electric vehicle (EV) workforce and accelerating domestic battery manufacturing."

He added: "Making sure the nation benefits from the technology the sector provides is also crucial. Last week, the government announced £88m of funding for 46 projects aimed at boosting development and use of zero emission vehicle tech. Projects include deploying zero emission trucks delivering our post, and cleaner, greener bus journeys. In short, the funding will back projects that will lower emissions across the country, while also supporting skilled jobs."
The SMMT's reasons to be cheerful also include a new report from the Faraday Institution which predicts that by 2030 the UK will need battery capacity of around 110 GWh per annum, the equivalent of six gigafactories.
"Recent gigafactory announcements in the UK by AESC and Tata Group have built excitement about the potential to create a new, dynamic and highly skilled battery industry in the UK," the trade body said. "With huge investment needed for the other four gigafactories, we look forward to the government's mission to create a strong, stable and pro-business economy, with the UK remaining an attractive destination for investment for the automotive industry."
Within the document that supports Labour's declared road map for the sector, labour says it will part-finance gigafactories to produce the battery technology and energy that is crucial for the industry to remain competitive amid the fast-moving and often ruthless competition it faces globally.

Commissioned by Savils, a map in the report identifies key sites where the national grid would best support such gigafactory introduction, with one site just north of Gloucester being listed in the line-up. The same report, incidentally, acknowledges the ground yet to be covered to bring the country up to speed on not just an EV charging network that is sufficiently evident to encourage drivers to go electric, but also a labelling system for cars which would engender buyer confidence and dispell "cynicism and anxiety".
The report adds: "We understand that it is more than charging worries that are inhibiting consumers from making the transition to electric vehicles. Information asymmetry has bred unnecessary cynicism and anxiety around electric vehicles. For instance, 47% of drivers have worries about battery durability but 56% overestimate the extent of range-loss from batteries, believing it is up to three times worse than is the case."
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