In the wake of yesterday's coverage of the first annual fall in house prices since 2012, a major Gloucestershire agency specialising in rural, residential and commercial property has said evidence for optimism remains in Gloucestershire's property market.

Matthew Blaken, director of agents David James, says that despite mainstream media headlines on mortgage rates, they may be less pivotal to the health of the property market than is often reported.

Mr Blaken said: "The latest interest rate changes will only affect those on variable rates, so there is a time lag to take effect for those on fixed rates."

And crucial to the bigger picture, he added, is an understanding of the existing balance in home ownership: "We need to consider the proportion of houseowners who rent and owners with no mortgages," he added, in reference to the latest census information for 2021.

That research revealed that in 2021, 8.1 million households, or 32.8%, owned the accommodation they lived in outright, a number which marked a rise on the previous 2011 census findings of 7.2 million, or 30.8%.

Meanwhile the number of mortgage holders correspondingly dropped: 2021's census found 7.4 million households (29.7%) were signed up or had a loan or shared ownership arrangement, 2011's figures having been 7.8 million (33.5%).

As a snapshot of the latest rate of mortgage approval, the number in March was 52,000, which was around 20% below pre-pandemic levels.

In terms of the proportion of 2023's mortgage holders who are on variable rates, and thereby exposed to the immediate pain of a Bank of England interest rate rise, city analysts calculated that there were almost 1.5m mortgage holders outside fixed-rate schemes when the rate rose to 4.5% on May 11th.

Against this background, Christina Graham, residential sales manager at David James, believes property is still selling, even if the balance may be shifting to a buyer's market.

Ms Graham said: "Prices are down a little from the artificial spike produced by high demand and the stamp duty holiday saving, but I don't anticipate any major downturn in value here, due to our ease of accessibility across the country, great schooling and strong employment."

And while an increase in housing stock going onto the market might also be interpreted, she said, as prices faltering, another factor may well be at play, as sellers rush to market their homes and bring a decision to sell forwards because they are "fearing a price slump".

There is certainly evidence that that nervousness is already becoming a factor. In March, analyst TwentyCi said the proportion of homeowners withdrawing properties from the market has soared after sellers were inundated with low offers. A jittery 35% of sellers took their properties off the market without selling them in February 2023 - the trend up from 24% during the same month in 2022.

But as David James' busy listings show, such fear may now have turned into a belief that it is better to sell now and head off bigger price falls later in the year. Will prices fall?

Certainly - and with a keen eye on June 22nd, when the Bank of England makes its next announcement - the debate in property now must be more by how far. City AM reports that Capital Economics have forecast a drop by as much as 12 per cent this side of January 1st; Lloyds has placed its bet on 8%, although property search site Zoopla remains more optimistic, predicting the final fall may well be more of a middling 6 per cent.

That's a figure most in the property sector may be glad to settle on, although the Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) has now warned a drop of 9% may be where we land in 2024.

But perhaps the most relevant question will be what positives can emerge. Beyond the obvious pain and loss that is already befalling many homeowners faced with the hard choice of renegotiating a mortgage which, on average, is calculated to cost an additional £3,000 a year, it is likely that the more rural parts of the UK map will best weather 2023 -including Gloucestershire and the Cotswolds.

Pointing to ONS statistics since the pandemic, The Times Money Mentor reported yesterday: "With working from home likely to be a more permanent part of many people's lives, demand for properties outside cities has jumped.

"Lockdowns highlighted the value of greenery and space, triggering a surge of interest in properties in rural and coastal areas."

Trading on that as a USP, Gloucestershire property sits in the right location, as long as sellers are prepared - as David James' experience reflects - to be realistic.

And the UK's biggest platform for marketing bricks and mortar agrees.

Tim Bannister Rightmove's Director of Property Science, said in May that it's "the most accurately priced homes that are creating the most interest and attracting buyers".

Mr Bannister added: "Properties that have been on the market for a few months may have gone stale, and their asking price out of line with more realistically priced new instructions, where many sellers are motivated to sell and in tune with the current market."