Fresh figures today on the UK's economic performance indicate that the shallow technical recession we experienced in 2023 is over.

Data from the Office for National Statistics shows how gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have risen by 0.6% between January and March 2024 - slightly faster than a forecast 0.4% growth economists had predicted. The uptick followed declines of 0.3% in Q4 (Oct to Dec) and 0.1% in Q3 (July to Sept) 2023.

In output terms, services grew by 0.7% on the quarter, with widespread growth across the sector. Meanwhile, the production sector grew by 0.8% - but construction, in resonance with business news for the sector in Gloucestershire, fell by 0.9%.

If the ONS news today was anticipated, it was nevertheless seized upon by the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt as proof that the government's prescription for better economic times was working.

Mr Hunt told Sky News: "We're seeing that inflation is falling faster and I think people recognise it has been a very, very challenging period but they don't vote for Conservative governments for us to do popular things, they trust is to do the right thing for the long-term benefit of the economy."

However, Rachel Reeves, Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, said this was no time for Conservative ministers to be doing a victory lap.

She said: "The economy is still £300 smaller per person than when Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister. After 14 years of economic chaos, working people are still worse off.

"Today's figures will be welcomed by business throughout Gloucestershire though. Only two days ago, the FSB heralded new research on business confidence across the South West which suggested optimism had surged by 40% - to its highest level since October 2021.

Beset with inflation, energy costs, an increased wage bill and tightened household spending, the consensus among county businesses who have spoken with Punchline-Gloucester.com is that today's figures make a welcome Friday story that will hopefully percolate through to mean better retail activity.

Tony Davey, chairman of Stroud and District Chamber of Trade and Commerce said: "Crucially, this is positive because it might improve the most important factor: consumer confidence. Combined with better summer weather, our businesses will be working hard towards a goal of a good summer for trade - and any GDP rise certainly helps."

However, the TUC sounded a note of broader caution over the implications of the rise for retail activity - citing low pay as a handbrake on spending.

Paul Nowak, TUC General Secretary, said: "The UK economy has stopped shrinking. But one quarter of decent growth won't make up for 14 years of lost living standards.

"Real wages are worth less than in 2008 and working people will end this parliament worse off than at the start. Workers would be over £10,000 richer if pay had kept pace with its pre-crisis trend."

Research from the TUC into pay for local authorities across the South West has also shown that real wages remain below 2008 in 15 of the region's 27 public service employers. South West workers would be £178 a week better off, the research suggested, if pay had grown at pre-crisis trends.

And from the bosses' side of the table, while the Institute of Directors welcomed the news today, it said the clock was ticking just as loudly for a cut in interest rates.

Dr. Roger Barker, IoD Director of Policy said: "Both the quarterly and monthly GDP figures paint an encouraging picture. Based on this evidence, there is no doubt that that the spectre of recession is fading fast, and the economy is starting to move forward again. This assessment is supported by the IoD's latest survey findings from its members, which suggest that business confidence is improving.

"However, it would be premature to argue that the economy has definitively turned the corner. Although there are welcome signs of green shoots, any recovery is still at an early stage and it is likely to be fragile. As a result, there is still a compelling case for the Bank of England to cut interest rates at its next meeting on 20 June."