Covid loans that won't be repaid
By Richard Wright | 22nd September 2021
The Treasury is expecting a default on nearly £21 billion worth of government-backed Covid loans.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revised upwards its assessment of record public borrowing.
Loan schemes for businesses, like the bounce back loan, dished out £80 billion to keep firms afloat during the Covid crisis.
Public debt as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) in August totalled £2.2 trillion - that's 97.6% of GDP - the highest ratio since March 1963.
Isabel Stockton, research economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said: "For the first time these figures include an allowance for the degree to which emergency government-backed business loans made through the pandemic will never be repaid.
"The Office for National Statistics estimates that non-repayments will total £21 billion, which would be just over a quarter of the £80 billion loaned out.
"This is a big number, but not as big as feared by the Office for Budget Responsibility whose Budget 2021 estimate was that £27 billion would not be recouped. Loans that are not expected to be repaid add to estimated borrowing when the loan is made.
"So, these bring estimated borrowing in 2020-21 up to £325 billion, compared to £298 billion estimated in last month's figures. This is below the £355 billion assumed by the OBR's March 2021 Budget but is, of course, much higher than the £55 billion forecast on the eve of the pandemic in the March 2020 Budget."
Related Articles
Copyright 2024 Moose Partnership Ltd. All rights reserved. Reproduction of any content is strictly forbidden without prior permission.