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Gloucestershire Business News

Commercial property market growth prediction

The commercial property market could see returns grow by 6.4 per cent in 2021, real estate firm Colliers predicts.

The growth would be made up of 4.8% income return and 1.6% capital growth.

This follows a 2.3% decline in all property total returns in 2020. The firm says industrial and supermarket assets will be the most popular with investors in its latest Real Estate Investment Forecasts report.

Oliver Kolodseike, deputy chief economist at Colliers, said: "Latest business and consumer confidence survey data suggest that the economy will bounce back strongly in Q2. This is heightened by consumer confidence rising to its highest level since before the start of the pandemic, adding to hopes that the consumer sector will help drive the economic recovery.

"Mild rental growth will result in a slight reduction in yields in the short term, but we expect yields to then generally shift out in line with the trends for the Bank of England Bank Rate and 10-year government bond yields."

Colliers predicts that over the five-year forecast, industrial and supermarkets will be the best performing sectors.

All retail total returns are expected to show marginal growth of 0.6% this year, having suffered a 12.4% decline in 2020.

The office sector has also been going through structural change with lease lengths shortening according to Colliers.

While the proportion of deals signed with lease commitments in excess of three years averaged out at 77% between 2016-2019, in 2020 the equivalent number was down to just 53%.

Colliers expects all industrial yields to stand at 4.73%. Going forward, the firm predicts a stabilisation in 2022 and very mild outward shifts thereafter.

Given the ongoing strength of rental growth, all industrial total returns will show growth of 16.1% this year, the firm says, before slowing to a more sustainable rate of 5.4% in 2022.

John Knowles, head of National Capital Markets at Colliers, added: "It is particularly hard to forecast across all sectors over the next six months, however it does seem that industrial will continue to benefit from a demand driven market, much as it has done over the last 18 months. I have high hopes for the office sector, as confidence returns as people start to occupy their workplace again and business travel should open up to some extent over the next couple of months."

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