Businesses across Gloucestershire are bracing against crippling new energy costs in the wake of the government ending its Energy Bill Relief Scheme (EBRS) for non-domestic customers.

On Saturday April 1st, as Punchline warned last week , small businesses were nudged into a danger zone, according to the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) when the EBRS ended.

Craig Beaumont, spokesman, said: "The withdrawal of the government's EBRS scheme means a sudden 300 to 400 per cent increase in energy bills, which is an existential threat to many already struggling with increased inflation, interest rates, taxes and employment costs.

"The cliff-edge we've been about warning for months is sadly here – tens of thousands of small firms are now at an existential risk as government energy support will largely downscale to a scheme that offers almost no help."

From cafes and pubs to salons and convenience stores, small firms that fixed their energy contracts last year, said the FSB, will see their bills rise by three or even four-fold as prices revert back to high prices and to pre-EBRS level.

"We found 24% of small firms are trapped in fixed contracts, and of them, 28% say they could be forced to downsize, close or restructuring their businesses. This equates to 370,000 small businesses, and not to mention the jobs and communities which depend upon them."

Bills for the year ahead are likely to send shockwaves through the county. For shopkeepers, the British Independent Retailers Association is warning that it calculates a shortfall of £500 per month on average.

Working with a government-supplied example of a typical pub with annual electricity consumption levels of 48,000 kWh and gas consumption level of 192,000 kWh, the FSB said that, had the pub placed a new contract for electricity on 22/08/2022, at 76.15 p/kWh (the Market Reference Price set by the government) it will be now paying £36,552 per year for electricity (the figure showing no government support).

On the same day, if the pub placed a new contract for gas at 25.14p/kWh (again at the Market Reference Price set by the government) it is now paying £48,268 per year for gas.

So for both electricity and gas, the pub now pays £84,820.

For some in Gloucestershire, the bills are even steeper. Greg Pilley, the managing director of Stroud Brewery and Taproom has already been busy with calculations. After the bruising test of Covid, he said this is no easier.

Mr Pilley said: "Against our known most recent annual energy bills for 2021-2, when we spent £33,000, the bill from April 1 this year to the end of next March is £100,000. So we are looking at about £70,000 we have to find."

An inevitable recourse, he said, is for his business, established in 2006, to add more onto the price of a pint and a meal. "Calculating that £70,000 on the margin of how we absorb the cost, we are looking at a 33% margin increase, so that means that in beer we have to increase turnover by £210,000 just to stand still."

But that's just one element of cost: "Overall, we believe we now have to find £0.5m more to remain as we are. We have between 70 people on the payroll, of which about 15 are core staff and the rest are zero hours casual bar and kitchen. Fifty per cent of these are under 24 and we made the commitment as a living wage employer.

Stroud Brewery sells 35% of its beer direct, over the bar, through web sales and Stroud's farmers market. The remainder is sold through independent shops, with multiples, essentially the Co-Op, taking 1%.

"It's fragile, today's situation, but then again there is always something. We are grateful people come out still and one uplifting element is that our landlord put solar on the roof and that now provides 24% of energy.

"My suspicion is that we have been underpaying on energy and, but if I have a message for our local MP, we need strategic, fundamental investment in alternative energy so we can pre-empt such rises in future. At the moment, there's no government strategy, no vision."